The landscape of Bitcoin futures has witnessed a significant shift in dynamics, with open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) surpassing that of Binance futures since November 2023. As of January 23, approximately 30% of the total open interest in the Bitcoin futures market is attributed to CME. However, amidst these developments, the burgeoning popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has begun to reshape the crypto futures market.
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett recently delved into the intricacies surrounding the expectations for spot Ethereum ETF approvals on January 23. Terrett provided insights into a spectrum of viewpoints, highlighting a prevailing sentiment that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be resistant to greenlighting a spot Ethereum ETF. In her report, Terrett quoted an undisclosed source asserting that the SEC’s current stance is a ‘hard no,’ accompanied by ‘some internal resistance.’
It remains unclear whether this source is affiliated with the SEC or represents an asset manager seeking the regulatory green light. Terrett underscored the divergence in perspectives within the SEC by referencing Commissioner Hester Peirce, a known advocate for cryptocurrency, who has advocated for a more streamlined decision-making process. Peirce criticized the SEC’s reliance on legal victories, emphasizing the need for a “regular way consideration” rather than decisions influenced by court rulings.
Looking ahead, Terrett speculated on the SEC’s future stance, suggesting that clarity could emerge in the coming months as the regulatory body engages with S-1 registration statements. The SEC typically discloses meetings with asset managers and exchanges on each ETF’s respective page as they occur.
Despite internal resistance, optimism abounds among asset managers responsible for these funds. Terrett relayed statements from issuers expressing confidence in the approval and successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs influencing the SEC’s stance on Ethereum spot ETFs. Another unnamed issuer anticipated a spot Ethereum ETF launch by the summer’s end, drawing parallels to the SEC’s prior approval of Ethereum futures ETFs and citing BlackRock’s favorable ETF track record.
Factors such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s classification of Ethereum as a commodity and Ripple’s partial legal victory against the SEC were raised as potential influencers, though their direct impact on spot Ethereum ETF approvals remains uncertain.
Public expectations surrounding the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs exhibit a range of perspectives. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posited a 70% chance of approval in May, contrasting with JP Morgan executive Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou’s more conservative 50% prediction. Polymarket odds, meanwhile, suggest a 53% chance of approval. As the regulatory landscape evolves, market participants eagerly await further developments in the SEC’s stance on spot Ethereum ETFs.
