Global asset management firm VanEck has projected that Solana (SOL) could reach $520 by the end of 2025, citing its expanding dominance in the smart contract platform sector. The firm attributes this growth to Solana’s increasing market share, the memecoin boom, and potential institutional adoption via exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
VanEck’s Bullish Case for Solana
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, along with Crypto Research Analyst Patrick Bush, highlighted that Solana’s price trajectory is influenced by the M2 Money Supply, which has a strong correlation with overall crypto market capitalization.
According to VanEck’s projections, the M2 Money Supply is expected to hit $22.3 trillion by the end of 2025, maintaining an annualized growth rate of 3.2% since October 2023. Using regression models, they predict that the smart contract platform market capitalization will rise by 43% to approximately $1.1 trillion.
Currently, Solana accounts for 15% of the smart contract platform valuation. VanEck anticipates this share to increase to 22% by the end of 2025, leading to a projected market capitalization of around $250 billion. With approximately 486 million floating SOL tokens, this equates to a price target of $520 per token.
Key Growth Drivers for Solana
Solana has established itself as a leading blockchain ecosystem with a rapidly expanding user base. A key driver of its adoption is the rise of memecoins, particularly through platforms like Pump Fun. Memecoins such as TRUMP and MELANIA have surged in valuation, attracting mainstream investors.
In addition to memecoins, Solana’s ecosystem has shown significant financial growth. According to Messari’s latest report, ecosystem application revenue soared to $840 million, marking a 213% increase in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, data from DeFiLlama reports Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi has reached $19.54 billion, further solidifying its market position.
Potential ETF Approval and Market Outlook
Another potential catalyst for Solana’s price growth is the approval of a Solana ETF in the United States. With a more crypto-friendly administration in place, the likelihood of regulatory approval has increased. VanEck, alongside Canary Capital, Bitwise, and 21Shares, has already filed 19b-4 applications with the SEC for spot Solana ETFs. If approved, these ETFs could bring significant institutional investment into the ecosystem.
Despite the bullish forecast, Solana’s price is currently facing short-term pressure, largely due to Bitcoin’s dip below $98,000. At the time of writing, SOL is trading at $190.04, down 4.6% in the last 24 hours. The coin’s intraday movement has ranged from $189.30 to $203.88.
For VanEck’s prediction to materialize, Solana would need to achieve a 170% price increase from its current levels. While ambitious, analysts believe the combination of increased adoption, institutional investment, and favorable macroeconomic conditions could make this target attainable.
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