The odds of a Solana (SOL) ETF getting approved by July 2025 have seen a significant spike, according to Polymarket. They now stand at 71%, up from a low of 58% this week and 50% last month.
This increase in probability is being driven by the new political landscape. With President-elect Donald Trump taking office and nominating Paul Atkins as the SEC chair, investors are hopeful for a change in the regulatory stance. Trump has also been actively assembling his crypto council, appointing Bo Hines as the executive director and David Sacks, a former PayPal executive, as the “crypto czar.”
This potential approval would come after the SEC, under Gary Gensler, rejected applications from companies like 21Shares, Canary Capital, and VanEck, citing Solana as an unregistered security. The rising odds suggest that investors expect Atkins to have a different approach compared to Gensler and Jay Clayton.
In addition, VolatilityShares has filed for a futures-based Solana ETFs, offering 1x, 2x, and -1x exposure to the coin. Bloomberg’s Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted the uniqueness of this filing given the non-existence of Solana futures. However, he also suggested it could be a sign that Solana futures are on the way, which might bode well for the odds of a spot Solana ETF.
Solana has emerged as a major player in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. Its token has a market cap exceeding $90 billion, ranking it as the sixth-largest cryptocurrency. It is also the second-biggest chain in the industry, with over $8.25 billion in assets. Its DEX protocols like Raydium and Orca are leading in trading volume, having handled over $636 billion cumulatively and $18.9 billion in the last seven days. With many investors already embracing Ethereum ETFs, there is a growing belief that a spot Solana ETF could also attract significant capital.
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