In the world of prediction markets, there’s a significant split in expectations regarding President-elect Donald Trump approving a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Polymarket users, through a poll with over $1.5 million in funds, predict a mere 27% chance of this happening within the first 100 days of Trump’s administration. This is a sharp decline from the 60% odds after his election. Historically, Polymarket has been quite accurate in its predictions, including those related to past presidential elections.
However, Kalshi users have a different outlook. They place the odds of a Bitcoin strategic reserve being established by January 2026 at 61%, the highest since December 21.
Some conservative-leaning states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are already taking steps towards strategic Bitcoin reserves. Pennsylvania has a bill suggesting the government invest at least 10% of the State General Fund in Bitcoin to combat inflation.
Regarding the Texas strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, Polymarket gives it a 10% chance of passing by March next year, while Kalshi puts the odds at 24%.
Proponents of the U.S. adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, such as Senator Cynthia Lummis, point to favorable demand and supply dynamics. Bitcoin demand is on the rise, with spot ETFs holding over $128 billion in assets. Supply is decreasing as mining difficulty reached a record high after the April halving, and exchange balances have been falling.
MicroStrategy’s success as a major Bitcoin holder, growing into an $80 billion company, is also cited as an example. Some analysts even suggest the U.S. could use Bitcoin to pay off part of its $36 – trillion debt.
On the other hand, opponents highlight Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market scale, regulatory constraints, and its implications for sovereignty and trust as reasons against using it to pay off the national debt. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has stated it can’t hold Bitcoin without a congressional law.
Notably, Trump has shown support for Bitcoin and proposed converting government Bitcoin holdings (198,000 coins worth $18 billion) into strategic reserves.
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