Bitcoin, the world’s oldest and largest cryptocurrency, is projected to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to a new report from Bernstein Research. This revised target marks a significant increase from last year’s $150,000 price prediction.
The investment firm’s forecast is driven by several key factors, including the upcoming U.S. presidential election, growing institutional demand, and potential regulatory changes that could fuel further adoption of Bitcoin.
One notable influence is the speculation surrounding the U.S. election, with some experts predicting that a victory by former President Donald Trump could lead to pro-crypto appointments, including a pro-Bitcoin chair for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a crypto-friendly Treasury Secretary. Figures such as Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, and Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Group, are mentioned as potential candidates to replace Janet Yellen, further signaling possible shifts in U.S. financial policy.
Institutional interest is also expected to play a major role in Bitcoin’s price surge. With large companies increasingly investing in Bitcoin or crypto-related products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), demand for the cryptocurrency is projected to grow. One of the latest examples of institutional backing is Goldman Sachs’ increased stake in BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which now totals $710 million.
In addition, U.S. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced the Bitcoin Act and Bitcoin Strategic Reserve plan, aimed at promoting Bitcoin as a financial reserve asset alongside gold. These developments reflect a broader shift toward integrating Bitcoin into traditional financial systems.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra highlight the significance of U.S.-regulated Bitcoin ETFs, which they believe have been a “watershed moment” for the cryptocurrency sector, bringing in structural demand from traditional capital markets. Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in mid-January 2024, the market has seen around $28 billion in inflows, with other countries also beginning to introduce similar products.
Looking further ahead, Bernstein’s analysts predict that Bitcoin ETFs could account for 15% of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply by 2033. Their long-term outlook suggests that the price of Bitcoin could soar to over $500,000 by 2029, and potentially reach $1 million by 2033, driven by increasing institutional adoption and a higher marginal cost of production.
As Bitcoin continues to mature as an asset class, these bullish projections underscore growing confidence in its future as both a store of value and a financial instrument.
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