A leading cryptocurrency analyst has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s dominance returning to the high levels seen in December 2020. This period marked a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price, which rose approximately 220% within three months.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, discussed his outlook in an interview with The David Lin Report on August 17. Cowen does not expect Bitcoin dominance to rise back to 70%, a level it briefly reached during the last major rally. Instead, he predicts a target of around 60% for Bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin Dominance Trends
Cowen explained that during major altcoin seasons, like the one experienced in 2021, Bitcoin’s dominance—the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total crypto market—typically declines. It tends to gradually return to previous levels after such a downturn. However, Cowen believes that even if Bitcoin’s dominance peaks again, it is unlikely to reach the highs of past cycles.
“I think there is room for Ethereum and many other cryptocurrencies,” Cowen noted, suggesting that the landscape for Bitcoin dominance has changed.
Cowen anticipates that Bitcoin could reach a dominance of 60% between September and December.
Currently, Bitcoin dominance stands at 57.36%, having increased by 4.25% since July 18, according to TradingView data.
Diverging Opinions on Bitcoin Dominance
In contrast, pseudonymous crypto trader Kaleo has indicated that Bitcoin dominance may have already hit its peak. On August 9, Kaleo told their 643,700 X followers that the current cycle might represent the top for Bitcoin dominance, which was around 57.50% at the time.
Kaleo stated, “I feel fairly confident this is the cycle top for Bitcoin Dominance.” They added that Bitcoin dominance did not reach the 60% level they had anticipated, which they viewed as beneficial. Kaleo believes that a true altcoin season will commence when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%.
Traders often interpret peak Bitcoin dominance as a signal to sell Bitcoin and invest in alternative cryptocurrencies.
The Changing Landscape of Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin dominance hit a high of 70.23% in December 2020 before the asset’s price skyrocketed to $61,283 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap. Cowen pointed out that the situation in 2024 is different from 2019, when Bitcoin dominance exceeded 71%. The market for stablecoins was much smaller at that time.
Cowen advises using a combined measure of Bitcoin dominance and Tether (USDT) dominance to gauge overall market sentiment. Currently, the combined dominance of Bitcoin and USDT is approximately 63.07%, reflecting levels similar to those in June 2019, prior to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
