Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan is under FBI investigation after federal agents seized his mobile devices in connection with his platform’s prediction markets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The investigation follows the successful predictions made by Polymarket users who correctly bet on Donald Trump’s victory in the race against Democrat Kamala Harris.
According to reports from The New York Post, FBI agents conducted a 6 AM search of Coplan’s Soho residence on November 13, 2024, impounding his devices. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Coplan was woken by the agents but was not provided with details about the probe. Since the incident, Coplan has remained silent and has largely stayed out of the public eye, refraining from commenting on the situation.
This FBI inquiry comes on the heels of Polymarket’s growing prominence during the election cycle, as users traded more than $3 billion in event contracts predicting the outcome of the race. Before the election, odds on the platform consistently favored a Trump win, raising concerns among some observers about the platform’s potential influence on public sentiment and its market practices.
One source speculated that the investigation could be part of a broader examination into Polymarket’s operations, with possible ramifications for other companies in the prediction market space, such as Kalshi and Robinhood. Kalshi, which launched its own event contract market for the presidential race, recently won a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Robinhood, which entered the market later, also saw interest in its event contracts for the election.
The controversy surrounding Polymarket reached new heights after a French bettor, known as “Theo4,” won a staggering $79 million in profits by accurately predicting Trump’s victory across multiple accounts. His success—along with Polymarket’s reputation as a platform for crowd-sourced, real-world event predictions—has drawn increased scrutiny. Critics have pointed to potential issues of market manipulation, citing the influence of large, pro-Trump users on the platform. A report from The New York Times also suggested that Polymarket’s contracts could have been swayed by a “whale” bettor, leading to suspicions of unfair practices.
Polymarket’s popularity in the wake of the election has brought additional challenges, including threats from the French government to ban the platform ahead of their own elections, following concerns over international betting on political outcomes.
As the FBI investigation unfolds, the future of Polymarket, and its position in the rapidly expanding event betting market, remains uncertain. Authorities continue to examine the platform’s operations and its legal standing, potentially paving the way for tighter regulation of prediction markets in the U.S. and beyond.
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