France’s gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), is poised to impose a ban on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, following concerns over its legal status under French law. The move comes after the platform drew attention when a French user placed substantial wagers on the U.S. presidential election.
Polymarket, which allows users to place bets on political and economic events, has become a popular platform within the crypto community. As of the latest data from Dune Analytics, the platform’s total betting volume has reached $3.5 billion. However, the ANJ considers Polymarket an illegal betting platform within France, citing non-compliance with local gambling regulations.
Though the ANJ has yet to make a formal announcement, sources close to the regulator indicate that Polymarket’s access in France will soon be restricted. The ANJ is currently reviewing the platform’s adherence to French gambling laws, raising questions about the regulatory status of prediction markets like Polymarket.
The platform gained significant visibility during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with users making accurate predictions about key political events, including President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election and Donald Trump’s victory in the Republican primaries. This has led to both praise and criticism. Notably, a French trader, Theo, placed a $26 million bet on Trump’s win, securing a $49 million payout.
The potential ban in France follows similar scrutiny in the United States, where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed regulations targeting prediction markets like Polymarket, citing concerns over the possibility of manipulation. A public comment period for these proposed rules ended in August, and a final decision is still pending.
The debate surrounding prediction markets continues, with some economists and crypto supporters advocating for their value in providing insights, while others warn of the potential for manipulation and problematic incentives.
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